Author: SHaN Khurrum

Navigating Toronto’s condo market has always required a sharp eye for both numbers and timing, and recent rebate programs have added another layer to the decision-making process. While these rebates are sparking renewed interest, I’m seeing most momentum focused on existing new condo inventory, rather than the latest towers launching into the skyline. In midtown, for example, new condos are priced around $1,500 per square foot, while comparable resale units are closer to $900. For many of my clients, the math on resale properties simply adds up more comfortably—especially when larger, older units offer more space and value than the compact layouts of newer builds.

Buyer confidence in pre-construction has also faced challenges: delays, cancellations, and past investor losses have made many pause before committing. The recent rollout of rebate details brought some confusion, with buyers, lenders, and lawyers alike waiting for clarity on eligibility, paperwork, and project-specific qualifications. The reality is, for Toronto’s high-rise condo scene, rebate program windows are tight—buyers must sign within strict timelines, and completion schedules can limit who actually qualifies. As someone who’s guided hundreds of clients through GTA real estate transactions, I know that understanding these nuances and weighing every angle is crucial to making the right move in this market.

Toronto’s housing start numbers are down 10% compared to last year, which is a clear signal that construction activity has slowed in our city’s core. Currently, there are 37 building permits representing 6,600 condo apartment units where shovels haven’t hit the ground yet. While this slowdown might raise questions, it’s important to remember that some of these projects are still likely to move forward, especially if pre-sales were secured before the recent dip in sales activity. Housing start figures often lag behind what’s really happening on the ground, since Toronto’s larger developments move through many stages—planning, pre-sales, permits—before construction officially begins. As someone who’s worked across residential, commercial, and investment properties in the GTA for years, I know how important it is to read between the lines of these reports. The reality is, today’s housing start data may not capture all the momentum building in the background. Some of those permitted condos could still break ground soon, as the pipeline progresses.

Toronto’s real estate landscape remains dynamic, with homebuying activity up 9.4% year-over-year—marking the third consecutive month of rising sales. Yet, even as more buyers step into the market, property values continue to ease, and appraisal gaps remain a real consideration for both buyers and those looking to refinance. I’m seeing firsthand how falling values are impacting the amount of equity owners can tap into during refinancing, often requiring more robust valuation support to satisfy lender requirements.

In some recent transactions, appraisals have come in significantly below purchase prices—occasionally by hundreds of thousands—when nearby homes have sold for less, making it essential for buyers to approach offers with careful research and strategy. For those coming up to mortgage renewal, this is an important moment to review your options: lowering payments, accessing equity, or reallocating funds for investment opportunities. With tighter conditions anticipated later in 2026, we could see more stability in Toronto prices and increased activity in the latter half of the year. As always, experienced guidance is key to navigating these shifts in the GTA market.